2018 Model Portfolio

2018 Turtle Trading Theoretical Model Portfolio +84%

Please Read "Warning & Risk Disclosures" or its Tab in the Category Listings Prominently Displayed on this Website AND the "Risks, Notices & Disclaimers on the tab, above.

Read Blog History Below Published Live Between April 10, 2018 To June 5, 2018

See "2019 Model Portfolio" For Highlights OF 2019's Theoretical Portfolio-It Was Up Over 124% in 90 Days!  (The public theoretical trading demonstration ended June 24, 2019---and began March 26, 2019)

See "Hedge Fund" For ex-U.S. Interest

Mr. Kelly's Blackbox Model Covers 44 Markets Globally

From April 10, 2018 to June 5, 2018, Mr. Kelly demonstrated the use of the Turtle Trading Data Array, starting with a theoretical portfolio with $1,000,000 in capital and began tracking 10 major markets.  The results of the theoretical trading were posted on this website blog (see below) as soon as practicable after portfolio changes were made. The "Model Portfolio" permitted up to four entry points for each market, as noted in red ink, "Units 1-4," as seen in the blog.  These were "trigger" prices for new entry points for Units added to the portfolio.  Frequently, multiple entry points were initiated at the same time, depending on Mr. Kelly's judgment of market conditions.  Theoretical Gains/Losses were noted in blue.  During this period, Mr. Kelly racked up a theoretical return of over 84% (504% annualized!).    



UPDATE June 5, 2018 posted 1:00 pm ET:

The Jackass Banker model portfolio has decided to take substantial theoretical profits in the long US Dollar vs. the Mexican Peso trade.  We racked up $258,179 during the last week!  The peso and some other currencies still look weak against the dollar, but we will look for a correction to reenter.  In the meantime, the model portfolio which was started on April 10, 2018 with a $1,000,000 theoretical capital account, has grown to $1,848,487----booking a theoretical gain of $848,487 in slightly less than two months of trading.  This represents an 84.8% actual theoretical return and a 533% theoretical annualized return.  The June Position Notes are posted below, after the P&L.  We await the Turtle Trading Data Array signals to enter new trades.


MODEL PORTFOLIO UPDATE June 3, 2018 posted 10:30 am ET:

Friday we closed out the short on the Euro, booking another theoretical profit on that short trade (playing a strong US Dollar against the Euro) for $34,881.  This leaves us short the Mexican Peso against the dollar.  Mexico has an election coming up at the beginning of July and their socialist is leading---by a strong margin.  We may just hold onto the the Peso short until then.  We will count the waves and look at the Turtle Trading Data Array System to make a determination, as to when to close out this trade.  Since April 10, 2018, when the theoretical model portfolio was started, Jackass Banker has booked $715,018 in theoretical gains, from its beginning capital base of $1,000,000.  Since it is now June, the Position Notes will begin with only the current open positions in the upcoming week.  Below is the archived Position Notes for all the trades during May.


MODEL PORTFOLIO UPDATE May 30, 2018 posted 12 pm ET:

We are still bullish on the US Dollar.  Yesterday saw a big panic in the Euro and other currencies vis-a-vis the dollar.  Today, a slight correction, taking back some gains.  We were stopped out of corn and wheat yesterday, for theoretical losses of $53,576 and $43,968, respectively.  The combined unrealized theoretical profit in the bullish dollar positions is $94,755.  Total theoretical profits in the portfolio since April 10, 2018 (the day it was started) is $651,202, starting from a theoretical capital base of $1,000,000.  Updated May position notes are below.


MODEL PORTFOLIO UPDATE May 26, 2018 posted 9 am ET:

I will consider saying hello yesterday morning to two of my favorite actors, Ben Stiller and Hank Azaria, as an omen of good luck.  The positions which were established yesterday morning are profitable---at least over the Memorial Day weekend!  Fairly good moves in the Euro and the grains in the Turtle Trading portfolio's favor.  The theoretical profits in the portfolio have now grown to $751,879 from the starting captital base of $1,000,000 on April 10.  Below are the updated P&L, along with the May Position Notes updates.


MODEL PORTFOLIO UPDATE May 25, 2018 posted 10:30 am ET:

The Turtle Trading Data Array has some established signals the portfolio implemented this morning.  The model portfolio is now bullish, again, on the US Dollar with a bullish position against the Mexican Peso and a bullish position against the Euro.  It also is bullish on Corn and Wheat and established long positions in these two commodities today.  Since April 10, 2018 when this theoretical portfolio was established, the theoretical profits (which have deducted estimated commissions and fees) are $650,354---starting with a $1,000,000 capital base.  I will post a P&L update this Memorial Day weekend.  

On a side note, had the blessing of seeing two of the funniest and smartest men alive having a quiet breakfast in NYC.  Ben Stiller---who is nothing short of an incredible genius, and Hank Azaria---who makes my side hurt because he makes me laugh too much, were nothing short of real gentlemen when I wished them both well.  Thanks guys, for the years of enjoyment, laughter and joy you bring to so many millions of people!


MODEL PORTFOLIO UPDATE May 23, 2018 posted 5:00 pm ET:

A fairly quiet day, however we were stopped out of the Mexican Peso this morning for a $31,818 theoretical loss.  With Memorial Day coming up, a lot of people are leaving their desks and volume tends to lighten up.  Right now, we wait.  We have no positions, as of this evening.


MODEL PORTFOLIO UPDATE May 21, 2018 posted 11:10 am ET:

The model portfolio went long the US Dollar against the Mexican Peso.  This was from a previous buy signal.  It is interesting the Turtle Trading Data Array Software System is picking up the currencies getting destroyed by the dollar.  The upcoming elections on July 1, 2018 in Mexico, currently show a double-digit lead for the populist and highly controversial front-runner, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO).  He espouses socialist policies, and depending on the outcome of the election, could very well lead Mexico down a path similar to the paths seen in other socialist nations (i.e. inflation and weak currencies). 

We will watch this position closely and if it cooperates, may run with it through the elections.  Updated May Position Notes are also below.  The theoretical profit in the portfolio since April 10, 2018 is $684,790, with starting capital of $1,000,000, yielding a balance to date of $1,684,790.



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