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Forecasting Success

 

Financial Forecasting ● Research ● Consulting

Proven Track Record ● Priced at a Fraction of the Big Banks

Earth-Shaking Changes Ahead for Debt, Equity, Commodity & Currency Markets!

ARE YOU READY?

Have your hedge fund advisors and investments underperformed, due to the volatility of tumultuous financial markets? Is your pension fund meeting its “7%” sinking-fund obligation?  Are you ready for radical change in the financial markets, worldwide, in the months ahead?  If you are not happy with the answers to these important questions, we can help!

Our research solutions integrate brilliant forecasting with the strategic positioning of assets, liabilities and capitalization strategies---which are usually unique to each situation.  In this day and age, "vanilla" research reports, which merely regurgitate the mumblings of Joe Central Banker, arcane mathematical formulas to justify incorrect forecasts, or even provide a client with an "asset allocation" model for bonds, equity, etc., just don't cut it.  These kinds of forecasts are what we call, the "I drank the Kool-Ade" forecasts, and are the death knell of research houses on Wall Street.  They are the reason Wall Street always preaches, "Buy and Hold," "Dollar Cost Averaging," etc.  This is because they are rarely RIGHT!!!

Most analysts are wrong, because they are trying to determine the future by not only looking in the rear-view mirror, but also dismiss, almost entirely, the affects of true inflation, the impact of the Federal Reserve and fiscal policy---and the leverage built into our financial markets. 

The spread sheet which follows was published in D'Apocalypse Now!  It provides a glimpse at how we painstakingly incorporate our own, proprietary, inflation indicators to adjust index prices to equivalent, comparable figures in modern times.  This kind of comparison yields incredibly valuable information, unfiltered by the U.S. Government (which does not publish realistic figures on inflation, and many other areas, for political reasons). 

Creating a proprietary set of indicators, provides us major clues and key advantages, when we are making our forecasts.  Here, we knew back in 2013 that a "blow-off" high would really be much higher---and the Chicken Little's calling for a return to a fall from the cliff, would be wrong.

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Jackass Banker takes a different approach---our target is a 100% correct forecast.  Of course, we never reach this perfect goal, but anything less than this is sacrosanct to us.  We don't attempt to paper clients over with worthless pages of paper to justify enormous research and trading fees.  We live and die by being correct, because we are an economic consulting and publishing company that won't be around long, if we are not!!

We use proprietary reasoning, computerized analysis, and deep research to visualize, in our minds, the world as a 3-D chess game.  The key is being on the winning side.  We also have studied, and are one of the few organizations who is really knowledgeable about The Federal Reserve.  To not understand The Fed, and their potential impact on the marketplace---both good---and bad---is really taking your life in your hands, financially speaking.  One deep dive at the action they have allowed to occur in recent history, should be very telling.

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To "see around the corner" in this day and age, requires serious, experienced thought, to make smart, strategic decisions.  What impact The Fed has on the banks, your money and the opportunities and potential risks they pose, is critical.  Fortunately, we've written three detailed books on the subject and are armed with a unique set of information tools to help our clients.

The following chart is important, because derivatives are rarely discussed, except in the most topical of manners.  Derivatives are critical to the proper functioning of a robust banking environment---and are terrific---except when they are not! 

Each day, there is a Quadrillion-and-a-half dollar, global derivatives market trading around the world. Considering global GDP is only about $79 Trillion as of 2018, one can see the potential problem if there is ever any problem (again, as happened in the credit crisis) with counter-party risk.  We think this is important.

The banks' collective positions in derivative trading, below, is reprinted from the original in D'Apocalypse Now! (as is the chart on banking acquisition history, above).  Being prepared over the next couple of years, for a return of a "blow out" in counter-party risk assessment, is going to be critical for nearly any corporation, or money-management effort, on earth.  Jackass Banker takes this potential seriously, and as part of our assessment, may make recommendations to your organization as to how to minimize this risk.  If you are trading, dealing, or otherwise contracting with parties who are at risk of disruption and default risk in their derivatives positioning---your organization could be seriously affected.

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Robert Kelly, the founder and forecaster of our firm, has spent his career building leading-edge software and hardware products, for both Wall Street and technology companies, with some of the world’s top corporations, which include: 

  • Citibank
  • Morgan Stanley
  • Cray Research
  • Hewlett-Packard
  • TV Guide
  • Universal Music---and many others.

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To become good at forecasting, takes experience.  And Mr. Kelly has it, in spades.  Not only has he been building forecasting models and product technologies during his career, but when he had revenue responsibility in the technology business, he brought home hundreds of millions of dollars!  When he worked in the supercomputer business, he led the team which won the highly competitive and hotly pursued, U.S. Army High Performance Computing Center.  This became a $100 million+ contract award, and allowed the University of Minnesota Supercomputer Center, and its team, including the Computer Sciences Corporation, The Thinking Machines Corporation, IBM, Cray Research, Purdue University, The University of Minnesota and Howard University enormous victory against the likes of Carnegie Mellon, MIT, Georgia Tech, the University of Illinois Supercomputer Center, the San Diego Supercomputer Center, and many others.  This award brought in many advanced technologies to work on the "grand challenge" problems for the U.S. Army. 

If investors had followed the advice in D'Apocalypse Now! and even just bought the Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks, they would be "up" over 50% on their money, without using leverage of any kind from the month of publication in February, 2014...compounding at approximately13% a year, not counting dividends!!

As his books can attest, Mr. Kelly has become a master financial forecaster, and he has intimate familiarity with the equities, debt, currency, commodities and derivatives markets.  books-by-robert-kelly.jpg

During the last year, with his proclivity to model, Mr. Kelly developed a highly proprietary “Turtle Trading” software system.  This system provides easy-to-understand signals (i.e. uptrend, downtrend, or flat) to understand the "health" of key financial markets.  The "Turtles," for those unfamiliar with their accomplishments, became famous when Curtis Faith used the Turtle trading methodology to turn $2 million into more than $34 million in about four years, during the 1980's. Mr. Kelly's platform analyzes 42 different equities, debt, currency and commodities markets and is suited for use only by sophisticated traders, wealth managers and investment organizations.

In a class Mr. Kelly taught, 11 students were instructed to use the Turtle Trading methodology.  Mr. Kelly created an easy-to-use risk management system for them to deploy.  The class lasted one quarter, and the students had an average approximate return of a little over 140% (annualized), using futures contracts.

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The class trading performance was measured over 52 trading days.  Together, the students made a total of $3,616,879 (commissions and fees not included) from January 30, 2015 to March 31, 2015.  Each student was given a theoretical bank balance of $1,000,000 at the start of trading.

Total Gains & Annualized Returns & Statistics:

  • Average percentage annualized theoretical return                             =             144.82%
  • Average theoretical gain during 52-day trading period                       =             $301,406 
  • The median return during 52-day trading period                                =              $268,547 
  • Total class theoretical profits during 52-day trading period                =              $3,616,879
  • Standard deviation during 52-day trading period                                =              $139,045   

These results are entirely documented in Mr. Kelly's book, Holding The Fort, and obviously, no one can promise these kinds of returns will repeat themselves---even on a theoretical basis.  The students did not deduct commissions, they may, or may not have been able to be filled at the closing prices quoted in Investor's Business Daily, etc.  However, using a proper risk management system in active trading, or in managing a portfolio is hugely important.

OK, you might be saying  to yourself right now, "How can I KNOW Mr. Kelly has extraordinary forecasting ability?"

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The only way to "know" is to measure by a public track record.  Since work that Jackass Banker performs for clients is strictly confidential (even the names of our clients is a tightly guarded secret), prospective clients can read, in black and white, what Mr. Kelly has forecast, historically.  

Back In early 2014 (verifiable at Amazon), Jackass Banker published, publicly, Mr. Kelly's The Federal Reserve Trilogy, and its Volume III (D’Apocalypse Now!---The Doomsday Cycle) was dedicated to forecasting key financial markets, over the years ahead.  When "D'Apocalypse" started being written, the Dow Jones was trading in the 13,000's and had risen to the mid-15,000's by the time of publication.  The Euro was sitting around $1.36, and gold was trading in the high 1400's, with most of the gold bugs thinking the shiny metal was heading to $5,000 per ounce!

As it turned out, D’Apocalypse Now!---The Doomsday Cycle and Mr. Kelly's forecasts in it, became the stuff legends are made from.   The recommendations in this book (see below) not only flew in the face of conventional wisdom, but also quite frankly, made most people think Mr. Kelly was crazy

As you will see, there are some amazing, and striking forecasts made in D’Apocalypse Now!---The Doomsday Cycle.  The following are just some of the dramatic predictions made by Mr. Kelly---years ahead of time:

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  1. Chapter 9 states in bold print “Buy The Dow” (top of page 304), with chart (page 46) published Dow Jones “Target Range” of 22,000-37,000. Fulfillment: The Dow rose from 15,000 to over 26,000---so far!
  2. “Europe will be a major factor here. The Euro will go bust.” (par. 2 page 196). Fulfillment: The Euro dropped from $1.36 to $1.04---an enormous move for the currency markets.
  3. “China at risk of a bubble implosion, because of debt…” (par. 1 page 288). Fulfillment: Huge China scare occurred in 2015 due to bad debt. Markets got rocked, forcing China to “reflate” their economy.
  4. “Exit all positions by the end of May 2015.” You should be OUT of all markets by the end of May 2015.” (par. 4 page314). Fulfillment: May 2015 was the absolute HIGH before a massive, and rapid, correction (over 10%) hit the markets in August of 2015! This is when the Fed got scared and re-inflated the U.S. markets, once again, allowing the bubble to inflate.

The probability of making these predictions, with such specificity is conservatively, 1 in 100, using regular probability theory. 

The following is the chart and target range Mr. Kelly suggested when D'Apocalypse Now! was first published.  Since then, his forecast has been fulfilled/

But, what happens now???dow-target-22000.37000.jpg

You see, Mr. Kelly's work included dramatic and correct forecasts for the debt, equity, currency and precious metals markets and all of his books are available at our web site and even are registered with the Library of Congress.  They are also widely distributed at AmazoniTunes, or at Lightning Press (Ingram), through local book stores. 

Mr. Kelly's next book publication date for financial forecasts is not expected until early 2019, for the general public.

Unfortunately, important sea-changes are about to take place in the financial markets! 

If your organization does not want to wait a year to receive detailed, action-oriented research from Mr. Kelly and Jackass Banker, taking action now is important.  There is a financial tsunami quickly approaching which will surprise many.  Tsunamis are violent---they RISE---AND FALL.  Do you wish to be prepared for this one?

To this end, Jackass Banker is pleased to offer consulting services at a rate of $750/hour, with a five-hour minimum initial engagement.  Because we are small, and highly specialized, we only have room for 20 new clients to help them prepare.  Our motto is, Quality First!” and by keeping our client numbers down, our mission to deliver a high-quality, outstanding service, is not compromised.

WHAT YOU CAN GET:

Finished research reports are designed to fit your organization’s needs and challenges, while allowing you to potentially maximize the opportunities which may present themselves in the marketplace.  Services are tailor-made for our clients and may include, but are not limited to:

  • Providing highly confidential research consulting services to institutions and private wealth, worldwide.  
  • Delivering global economic forecasts (and how they may impact various asset classes), and the strategic positioning of your company, or entity to optimize its growth and capital;
  • Setting forth strategic asset and liability allocation and analysis;
  • Identifying geographic-, market- and class-specific allocation strategies, as appropriate.
  • Discussing how the emergence of a global debt meme, massive spending levels and tax policies will affect currencies, debt, equities, futures, commodities, capital flows and associated derivatives markets.
  • Reviewing institutional bank positioning, including counter-party risk assessment.
  • And for active commodities, currency and equity positioning and trading, clients can gain access to our daily “Turtle Trading” data array feed. It analyzes 42 different financial markets and provides clear signals for uptrends and downtrends in the covered markets. Monthly subscription for this service is $99/seat/month.

WHAT IT COSTS TO ENGAGE US:

Billing rate: $750/hour      Initial retainer:  $3,750 non-refundable, five-hour-engagement retainer.  Travel expenses:  Reimbursed.

Click http://jackassbanker.com/consulting-services-2/ to purchase, or contact:  jackassbanker@gmail.com or phone (917) 553-0030, for further information.


Please allow 3-5 days to print our beautiful books and products. Once they are finished in production, your order will be shipped out according to your shipping instructions. Thank you for taking this into your consideration of your order. Thank you!